Today is the first day of the nationwide lockdown. I have left my flat twice today – one an essential journey to top up my electricity meter, and the other a short walk the length of my street to stretch my legs. On this second journey I saw no-one, and was glad of that. I phoned my family, and sent texts to check in on some friends. On the science front the latest news I’ve read shows that the virus is mutating slowly – which is a good thing since it means that a vaccine may provide long lasting protection. The government is also putting in place antibody testing – to check who has had the virus and recovered – to allow key works who have had suspected symptoms to return to essential work. As far as my own situation goes – I’m safe, I have supplies, and I have enough work to do.
There have been moments however when I have felt burning anger at some of the things I have seen online. People claiming this virus is ‘fake’ or a ‘hoax’. A further symptom of the matters discussed in this entry. People seem to believe that the ability to comment on a video on YouTube, or post on Twitter, makes them an expert, and that their view is as valid as those of people with years of experience in medicine, virology, epidemiology, etc.
The maths are simple – 1 person, disobeying the rules on social distancing etc, can cause thousands of cases. Spreading false rumours and claims that the virus isn’t real, or that it was released deliberately, these rumours are both as dangerous and this kind of misinformation will lead to more cases and more deaths. I call it monumental stupidity, and anti-intellectualism on a massive scale. My grandfathers (who lived through the Great War, and World War 2, respectively) would both have had another word for it. Treason.
Stop spreading rumours. Stop making snide remarks about the conditions, or the rules. This is not the time for people to build a bit of ego – when people could die as a result. In normal times you might call these internet conspiracies harmless, or trolling, but in an epidemic or pandemic, they are far more dangerous.
Regarding the possibility that this was a weapon – there are many reasons why this is highly unlikely, medical, scientific, and geopolitical. The most obvious evidence against it is that this virus can be wiped out by soap and water. It doesn’t survive well on surfaces. In terms of other viruses and pathogens which have developed in nature this is weak – compared with MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) for example, which as some readers will know is a mutated form of Staphylococcus aureus which developed resistance to certain antibiotics, and is known as a 'superbug' as a result. Compared this previously developed biological weapons, particularly nerve agents such as VX this is not in the same league of biological persistence. It is true that viruses have been weaponised in that past, however, there is a vast amount of debate as to whether they would prove effective - and it is worth noting that as a candidate for weaponisation coronaviruses are unlikely to have been considered for two logical reasons - 1) some are prone to rapid mutation in transfer between people and are therefore too unpredictable and 2) there are other far more dangerous viruses which have been considered for such projects. In fact it is notable that the virus generally considered to be the most lethal (in terms of number of people who die after showing symptoms), rabies is the most dangerous - since by the times symptoms present the condition is already to far advanced for it to be reverse or treated. Treatment of rabies is reliant on vaccination as soon as possible after exposure (such as an animal bite) and continue vaccination after exposure to ensure the virus cannot take hold. While viruses frequently appear as weapons in video games, films, and TV series - the practicalities of producing, replicating, and delivering viruses in such a way that it would be an effective weapon (without it mutating or effectively going rough in the wild) - alongside the fact that many viruses burn themselves out (smallpox outbreaks were often found to self limit due to the death rate outpacing the spread of the virus) - make them impractical when compared to alternative conventional military forces, and political actions, even before the cost in manpower, time, money , and resources required is factored in. It is also worth considering that Covid-19 is one of family of viruses which include others which are now to have crossed from animals to humans (a route common to most viral infections - and common to the six most deadly viruses known to science).
On a personal level my message to those young people who seem to feel that because the majority of cases are their mild to moderate, or asymptomatic, they don’t have to change their lives – because they don’t have a high risk, or have an underlying health condition, is this. You can’t be 100% you don’t have a condition you don’t know about. I taught someone some years ago. They were a young, healthy individual. They were in their early 20s. They were fit, and an athlete – training several times a week. They were, to all we knew and they knew, in the prime of life. They died less than a few months after graduating from university, having collapsed and died in a matter of seconds. It was only discovered through post mortem examination that they had a previously undetected heart condition. You don’t know how much time you have. You don’t know the inside of your own body. Your personal confidence does not convey immortality. For the sake of yourself, of your friends, your family, and their friends and family – you have to stick to these rules. A fine, or even time in prison, is nothing compared to the guilt you will feel if through your actions and in-action you contribute to another person’s death. Don’t do it. Don’t spread rumours which can be all to easily believed. Don’t spread lies or worse ‘cures’ which have no foundation in medical science. Comments about masks don’t help. The reality is most people have no idea what kind of masks and respirators are suitable for what situations in medicine, or in hazardous environments. Keep those comments to yourself. Don’t do things which could harm others.
Stay at home. Nothing but essential time outside. Wash your hands.
